REUTERS file picture China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, at sea. First launched by the Soviet Union in 1988, it was sold for S$27.30 million to a Chinese investor who said it would become a floating casino, though he was in reality acting on behalf of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. DALIAN (China) — In April, on the 69th anniversary of the founding of China’s navy, the country’s first domestically built aircraft carrier stirred from its berth in the port city of Dalian on the Bohai Sea, tethered to tugboats for a test of its seaworthiness.
“China’s first homegrown aircraft carrier just moved a bit, and the United States, Japan and India squirmed,” a military news website crowed, referring to the three nations China views as its main rivals.
Not long ago, such boasts would have been dismissed as the bravado of a second-string military. No longer.
A modernisation programme focused on naval and missile forces has shifted the balance of power in the Pacific in ways the US and its allies are only beginning to digest.
While China lags in projecting firepower on a global scale, it can now challenge US military supremacy in the places that matter most to it: the waters around Taiwan and in the disputed South China Sea.
That means a growing section of the Pacific Ocean — where the US has operated unchallenged since the naval battles of World War II — is once again contested territory, with Chinese warships and aircraft regularly bumping up against those of the US and its allies.
To prevail in these waters, according to officials and analysts who scrutinise Chinese military developments, China does not need a military that can defeat the US outright but merely one that can make intervention in the region too costly for Washington to contemplate. Many analysts say Beijing has already achieved that goal.
To do so, it has developed “anti-access” capabilities that use radar, satellites and missiles to neutralise the decisive edge that America’s powerful aircraft carrier strike groups have enjoyed. It is also rapidly expanding its naval forces with the goal of deploying a “blue water” navy that would allow it to defend its growing interests beyond its coastal waters.
“China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States,” the new commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, acknowledged in written remarks submitted during his Senate confirmation process in March.
He described China as a “peer competitor” gaining on the US not by matching its forces weapon by weapon but by building critical “asymmetrical capabilities,” including with anti-ship missiles and in submarine warfare. “There is no guarantee that the US would win a future conflict with China,” he concluded.
Last year, the Chinese navy became the world’s largest, with more warships and submarines than the US, and it continues to build new ships at a stunning rate. Though the US fleet remains superior qualitatively, it is spread much thinner.
“The task of building a powerful navy has never […]